Kamala Harris Carves Open Six-Point Lead Among Likely Voters: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll.
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found Harris leads Trump, 51 percent to 45 percent, in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters. Her lead is slightly smaller among registered voters. Among all adults, she leads Trump by 50 percent to 45 percent.
However, the poll also found that Trump, the Republican nominee, is more trusted on the issues respondents consider the most important in November’s election: the economy and inflation.
The Harris and Trump campaigns have been contacted for comment via email.
The poll was conducted online between August 9 and August 13 in English and Spanish with a random national sample of 2,336 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The poll comes as the Democratic Party heads into its nominating convention on Monday, united behind Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and buoyed by enthusiasm for her candidacy.
She rose to the top of the ticket after President Joe Biden dropped out in late July, after holding on for weeks following a disastrous debate performance by suggesting he had the best chance of any Democrat of beating Trump in November.
Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris being their candidate than they were about Biden, the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found.
Sixty percent of Harris supporters back her strongly (the same percentage of Trump supporters said they back him strongly), while just 34 percent had said they strongly supported Biden in July.
Meanwhile, 50 percent said they would be enthusiastic or satisfied if Harris won in November, up from 36 percent who said the same about Biden early last year.
Forty-five percent said they would be excited or satisfied if Trump wins a second term as president, up slightly from the 43 percent who said the same in early 2023.
The poll also found that Harris was overwhelmingly the candidate that voters say is in good enough health to serve effectively as president (56 percent to Trump’s 26 percent), reversing Trump’s 31-point lead over Biden on the issue from July. Harris has also erased Trump’s 20-point lead over Biden on having the mental sharpness to serve effectively, leading trump by nine points on the issue.
However, the poll also found voters trusted Trump more on the two issues that they said were most important in their decision on which candidate to support: the economy and inflation.
Trump was ahead of Harris by 9 points on trust to handle the economy (46 percent to 37 percent) and inflation (45 percent to 36 percent). And 46 percent also said they trusted Trump more on immigration, compared to 36 percent who said the same of Harris.
But Harris leads Trump on issues that ranked higher than immigration: she leads Trump by seven points (43 percent to 36 percent) on health care and on protecting American democracy (43 percent to 37 percent).
This poll “reflects the momentum and steady climb in support for the Harris campaign since Biden’s exit from the race,” Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.
“If the election were held today, this poll suggests Harris would win the popular vote. Notably, however, the election will not be held today, and the outcome will hinge on state-by-state results where, incidentally, Harris support has also been showing signs of growth.
“So while this is good news for Harris and Democrats—few polls ever showed Biden ahead nationally in head-to-head matchups for the duration of the election cycle—likely to get even better this week after the Democratic convention, there remains a long path to election day, the race remains close, and there are potentially bumps along the way. Neither candidate should take anything for granted at this point.”
Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, agreed that it is “important not to put too much stock” into any one poll.
“The weight of the evidence shows that the race between Trump and Harris is essentially dead even,” Gift told Newsweek.
“Harris now is running on ‘vibes,’ evidenced by the fact that some polling now shows her leading Trump overall, while trailing him on key issues like who would handle the economy better. After the Democratic convention, the honeymoon period will end, Harris will be subjected to real scrutiny of her policy and record, and the election will be a race to the finish line.”
Update 8/19/24, 9 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Costas Panagopoulos and Thomas Gift.